Conclusions, Inferences, and Predictions

Fourth grade teachers asked for an explanation of the differences between inferences, predictions and conclusions, as well as teaching ideas.  Listed below are some resources I've found.  If you have or find any good ideas to share, email them and I'll post them as well.

Chuck

Definitions

Through Google, I found the definitions below among the online materials for a university course.   (Link. I can figure out neither the name of the course nor exactly which university is designated by ‘gsu.’)

Conclusion:  A proposition that follows logically from one or more premises.

Inference: A conclusion arrived at from facts and by reasoning. Example: If you arrived at a gathering of friends and one of them was sitting in front of a decorated cake and blowing out candles, you would make the inference that it was a birthday celebration and the person celebrating the birthday was the one blowing out the candles.

Prediction: A learning strategy that involves taking information gained from listening or reading, identifying questions that emerge, and then making an educated guess as to the content and structure that will follow. An important aspect of using prediction is confirming guesses after reading. Prediction can facilitate understanding and remembering.

Typology of Conclusions, Inferences, and Predictions

The following distinctions were developed during some committee work I did for ISBE at about the time ISAT was being developed:

• Conclusion is the most general of the three terms.  It means any act in which a judgment or evaluation (called the conclusion) is related with premises in a logical argument.  In general usage, the "conclusion" is either a statement of the judgment/evaluation or an explanation of the reasoning by which it could be derived.
  • A conclusion is inductive when the reasoning starts with the premises and ends with the conclusion. 
  • Deductive logic goes the other way; reasoning begins with the general statement (the conclusion) and the premises are derived from it.

• Inference, the next most general term, refers to a deductive or inductive conclusion developed by the reader or listener, rather than presented by the writer or speaker.   Inferences come is several types:
  • Level 1:  All the necessary premises are provided in close proximity within the text, but there is no stated relationship between them. 
    • Example:  John and Mary are part of the large, happy family living in the corner house.  The fifteen children keep both parents busy all the time!  John hates to go to his 4th grade class at Brown Grade School, but Mary thinks Brown's kindergarten is fun. 
    • The passage contains all the information needed to infer that John and Mary are siblings.
  • Level 2:  All the necessary premises are provided, but are not in close proximity.  Example:  Almost any mystery story scatters the premises for the conclusion throughout the story line.  If the reader puts them together correctly to figure out the mystery, then he or she has done a level 2 inference.
  • Level 3:  Not all the premises are given in the text.  The birthday cake story is an example of a level 3 inference.

• Prediction, the most specific of these terms, refers to an inference about the future--something that hasn't happened yet or that hasn't yet been read.  Predictions may be inductive or deductive and they may be at any of the three levels.

Teaching Resources

• Grounding Conclusions, Inferences and Predictions in Text: 

• The Tennessee state education web site illustrates ways to support kids in the process of making inferences grounded in the text.

 

• Reciprocal Teaching (Palincsar & Brown) is a strategy proven to develop skill at all types of conclusions at all grades. 

• MSU online materials give a quick overview of Reciprocal Teaching.
• Although this page from Patti’s Teacher’s Corner is targeted at grades 2-3, it is the clearest explanation I could find, and the techniques can be used with any student, from primary through adult.

 

• The Teacher Spot, a good online resource for instructional strategies.   This link provides a strategy for teaching “comprehension strategies,” including inference and conclusion.

• Teacher Central, another online resource.   This includes inference, prediction, and conclusion.

• Online Course Materials from an unknown college.  I can't remember where I got this file.  I found it while I was looking for workshop ideas.  It's a bit flaky to read, because it's set up as a guided reading worksheet for a methods course.  Still, it has some good teaching ideas, forms, etc., for working with inferences.